Assuming that the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton for 2008, the Republican will have to reach for the stars to pull out a win.
John McCain is most frequently mentioned as the Republican presidential nominee for 2008. McCain does have enough clout to beat Hillary, but he is a little risky. McCain is unpredictable and has alienated a lot of Republicans. John McCain can certainly energize moderates, but he will have a very difficult time energizing the Republican base. After all, elephants are known for long memories, and McCain has angered a lot of elephants.
Rudy Giuliani is the clear Republican choice for President for one main reason: Rudy Giuliani can beat Hillary Clinton. After 9/11, Giuliani, arose as a great leader. His bravery and bold leadership as Mayor after the 9/11 attack gave him national recognition and respect. Since 9/11, Giuliani has had a very high profile and draws massive crowds wherever he goes. Giuliani always has the common man on his side. Even the Democrats that do not like Giuliani’s politics, still respect him as a man.
A significant factor that makes Rudy Giuliani a strong contender for 2008 is that he can take New York’s electoral votes. If the Republicans win New York, they will almost definitely win the nation. The Democrats simply cannot spare New York’s electoral votes.
Giuliani is also very popular among the California moderates, and his popularity will put California’s huge block of electoral votes in play. The Democrats cannot win the nation without California, and they will have to spend a massive amount of campaign money to secure the state.
Rudy Giuliani’s biggest problem is that he is a moderate. The Republican conservatives are going to begin grumbling when they start learning about Giuliani’s liberal positions on social issues. A lot of conservatives are not going to like Giuliani, so the GOP will need to find someone to appease that huge portion of the base. Fortunately, the Republicans do have several potential vice-presidential candidates with conservative appeal.
The big unknown with Giuliani is his past. Giuliani has never faced intense scrutiny over his private life. The Republicans’ biggest worry will be what skeletons Giuliani has in his closet. Giuliani has already raised some eyebrows with his past marriage, and New York has a shameful tradition of political corruption. Even if Rudy Giuliani himself has not been involved in any of the corruption, it is probable that some of his associates have been connected to some unseemly dealings. Scandals can sink campaigns, and the Republicans need to know what might be coming at them when the press starts sifting through the past few decades of Giuliani’s life.
If Giuliani’s hands are fairly clean, he should be a spectacular candidate. The Republicans are going to need someone big to keep Hillary Clinton from getting back into the White House.
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